Lasyly surfaces a lot of numbers on every player prop card. If you've ever stared at a card and wondered what half of it means, this guide is for you. We'll break down every metric — what it measures, how it's calculated, and how to weight it in your decision.
The Hit Rate — Your Starting Point
The hit rate is the percentage of recent games where a player went over (or under) a given stat line. It's the most fundamental number on any prop card.
Lasyly shows hit rates across five time windows: the last 5 games (L5), 10 games (L10), 15 games (L15), 20 games (L20), and the full season. Each window tells a different part of the story.
L5 Hit Rate
Last 5L10 Hit Rate
Last 10L20 / Season
Long-termWhen L5, L10, and season-long rates all point in the same direction — that's a convergence signal. When they diverge, dig deeper into why.
Matchup Grade (A–F)
The matchup grade rates the opposing team's defensive ability against the specific stat type you're looking at. An A means the opposing defense is terrible at stopping that stat. An F means they shut it down.
Grades are calculated from the opponent's defensive stats against the position over the season. For NBA props, this uses points, rebounds, assists, and 3-pointers allowed per game broken down by defensive rating and position-specific matchups.
The matchup grade is most valuable when it's consistent with the hit rate. A player with a 70% L10 hit rate on points + an A grade from the opponent = a strong setup. A player with a 70% L10 but an F grade suggests the recent stretch may not continue.
Confidence Score (1–5 Stars)
The confidence score combines hit rate, matchup grade, and recent trend signals into a single composite number. It's an algorithm, not an opinion — but it's useful as a quick filter.
Hit rate is strong across all windows, matchup is favorable, trend is positive. High-priority research target.
Most signals align. One weak point (e.g., soft matchup but slightly declining trend). Still worth a close look.
Mixed signals. Some favorable, some not. Requires more manual research.
Hit rate is weak, matchup is unfavorable, or signals conflict significantly. Usually worth skipping.
The confidence score is a research prioritization tool, not a betting instruction. A 5-star prop can lose. A 2-star prop can hit. Use it to decide where to spend your analysis time.
Trend Arrow
The trend arrow shows the direction of a player's recent performance relative to the prop line. An upward arrow means their actual numbers have been trending above the line. A downward arrow means below.
This is most useful combined with the L5 hit rate. A strong upward trend alongside a high L5 suggests the line may not have fully adjusted yet — which is where value lives.
Streak Dots
The streak dots are a visual game-by-game record — green for over, red for under — reading left to right from oldest to most recent. They let you see the shape of a player's performance at a glance.
What to look for: alternating patterns can suggest mean reversion opportunities. Long green streaks may indicate a genuine step-up in play. Long red streaks against a high season-long hit rate might be buying opportunities — or they might indicate injury impact. Always check injury reports alongside the dots.
Correlations
The correlations feature shows which other props historically hit at the same time as the one you're looking at. If Player A goes over his assist line 80% of the time when Player B also goes over his points line, that's a correlation worth knowing.
Use correlations when building parlays. Correlated legs reduce the independent variance of a parlay — if one hits, the conditions that made it hit are likely to also benefit the correlated leg.
Line Movement
Prop lines move based on bet volume and sharp action. Lasyly tracks line history so you can see where a line started and where it is now.
A line that moved in your favor (e.g., you wanted the over and the line dropped) suggests public money is on the under — which often means there's value on the over side, since sharp bettors tend to move lines. A line that moved against you adds caution.
Putting It All Together
The best props emerge when multiple signals converge without contradicting each other.
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%
- Matchup grade B or better
- Trend arrow pointing the same direction as your bet
- Streak dots showing consistent recent form
- Line movement neutral or in your favor
A prop checking all five boxes is rare. Three or four is a solid setup. Two or fewer is usually noise.
Track every prop you bet using the Bet Tracker. Over time, you'll learn which signal combinations actually perform for you — the platform will surface your personal best-signal analysis automatically.
See these metrics in action
Every player prop card on Lasyly shows all the metrics above — updated from real scraped data. Free to explore.
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